• Standard risk analysis may not properly predict bear markets.  Brutal bear markets like 2008, 2001-03, and 1972-73 are a lot more common than the theorists like to admit. These "100 year events" seem to come along with disturbing frequency. Long-term buy & hold (LTBH) strategies are inherently exposed to these risks.

 

• Performance analysis tends to cherry pick winners, and ignores survivorship bias.  Accounting scandals, over-hyped analyst reccomendations, end-of-trend market plunges will all inevitably occur in the lifetime of an LTBH strategy.  The temptation is to hold on to losers in the hope that they turn around.

 

• Good traders know that opportunistic speculation is a process and that any one single outcome is a data point only.

 

• SMTP is a trading process that focuses on consistently avoiding catastrophic losses, managing risk, and preserving capital. A good process can be replicated, a random spin of the wheel cannot.  This heuristic approach delivers long-term overperformance vs market averages.

 

• The main algorithms use a short-term trend following strategy designed to maximize return through quick, in-and-out trades and avoidance of market downturns.  Stop Losses and Trail Losses are used to minimize impact once a market turns downwards.

 

• SMTP trades in US markets only, both NYSE and Nasdaq.  Long positions only - no margin, options, shorts, CFDs, ETFs.  Positions held typically 2-10 days.  Maximum of 6 or 12 almost-equal position sizes.

 

• Stock are chosen from a shortlist spread across 5 sectors (tech, finance, healthcare, energy and materials).

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• Output is displayed to potential clients via e-mail and this website, both updated daily.

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